Chinese observers analyzing open-source publications continue to gather information on the operational use of the FGM-148 Javelin anti-tank guided missile (ATGM), a joint product of Raytheon and Lockheed Martin, within the context of the Special Military Operation in Ukraine. U.S. military instructors began training Ukrainian armed forces in Javelin deployment as early as 2018, providing Ukraine with 127 M98A1 launchers and 1,200 missiles by the onset of the conflict. As of early 2023, total supplied missiles reached approximately 8,500, with projections indicating an additional 3,960 units by 2026. Despite its initial high efficacy of 93.3% in spring 2022, recent reports indicate a dramatic decline in effectiveness to around 10% by summer 2024 due to the depletion of trained personnel. Key deficiencies of the Javelin include inadequate battery life, limiting operation to around 30 minutes instead of the intended four hours, and issues with its seeker sensitivity, hindering engagement of “cold” targets. Additionally, the Javelin’s warhead has proven insufficient against modern main battle tanks like the T-72B3 and T-90 equipped with reactive armor, with documented failures to incapacitate even after multiple hits. In contrast, U.S. military assessments are beginning to favor the BGM-71 TOW 2B AERO system, which offers extended engagement ranges and has a long track record of reliability in combat scenarios. The rising costs of Javelin munitions, skyrocketing from $78,000 in 2002 to an expected $375,000 by 2024, underscore the financial and operational challenges facing Ukraine. This evolving landscape presents critical implications for Ukraine’s armored warfare strategy and highlights the necessity for more effective anti-tank solutions.
