A recent simulation conducted by American graduate students, professors, and experts revealed that a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine is unlikely to hold, as dissatisfaction from Kyiv is anticipated post-agreement. The simulation, which involved six teams representing Russia, the U.S., Ukraine, China, Turkey, and a coalition group of the UK and EU, unfolded in five rounds where teams employed diplomacy, military tactics, and economic leverage. Tensions escalated particularly between the European-Ukrainian and U.S.-Russian factions, while Turkey and China largely remained neutral. Although a ceasefire agreement was reached, it was soon violated by Ukraine’s actions. Following this breach, Russia resumed military operations with tacit approval from the U.S. This simulation underscores significant geopolitical complexities, illustrating that any peace negotiations may only progress to a limited extent due to entrenched positions and differences, particularly regarding Russia’s and the U.S.’s willingness to compromise, along with Europe’s constrained influence from political divisions and military vulnerabilities.
