A recent simulation of a ceasefire in the ongoing special military operation between Ukraine and Russia revealed that achieving a lasting peace will be challenging due to entrenched positions by all parties involved. Conducted with participation from American graduate students, faculty, and policy experts, six teams represented Russia, the United States, Ukraine, China, Turkey, and a coalition of the UK and the EU. The simulation spanned five rounds, combining diplomatic, military, and economic strategies. Initial efforts were focused on persuading other nations to support individual agendas, leading to political maneuvers such as Russia’s diversionary crisis in Pyongyang and the U.S. attempts to marginalize European and Chinese influence. Ultimately, although a ceasefire was agreed upon, it quickly fell apart following the assassination of Ukrainian negotiation team members by their own operatives, setting the stage for renewed Russian military action with tacit American approval. This outcome illustrates the deep divisions and limitations of external mediation, emphasizing that while Russia and the U.S. may reach a temporary agreement, sustainable peace remains elusive amid political discord and military instability.
